广义Pareto模型统计推断及其应用

广义Pareto分布能很好地拟合数据分布的尾部,广泛地应用于金融市场的风险管理、风险经营问题的研究。利用概率加权矩法得到了三参数广义Pareto模型的参数估计式,给出了阈值的选取方法和风险值的计算公式;利用计算机模拟,计算得出了KS检验统计量的临界值。     

带启动时间的N-策略Geo/G/1排队系统的队长分布及容量的优化设计

考虑带启动时间的N-策略离散时间Geo/G/1排队系统,使用全概率分解技术,从任意初始状态出发,研究了队长的瞬态和稳态性质,推导出了在任意时刻n瞬态队长分布的z -变换的递推表达式、稳态队长分布的递推表达式和附加队长分布的表达式,并获得稳态队长的随机分解结果.最后,通过数值实例,讨论了稳态队长分布对系统参数的敏感性,并阐述了获得便于计算的稳态队长分布的表达式在系统容量的优化设计中的重要应用价值.     

随机矩阵乘积的尾概率

在一定条件下,本文给出了一列正随机矩阵乘积的尾概率估计,它以指数的速度消失;然后,在一维的情形,基于更新过程的残差等待时间的拉普拉斯变换,建立了极限常数的两种不同形式表达式之间的联系.     

A semi-finite algebra associated to a subfactor planar algebra

We canonically associate to any planar algebra two type II_∞ factors M_±. The subfactors constructed previously by the authors in Guionnet et al. (2010) [6] are isomorphic to compressions of M_± to finite projections. We show that each M_± is isomorphic to an amalgamated free product of type I von Neumann algebras with amalgamation over a fixed discrete type I von Neumann subalgebra. In the finite-depth case, existing results in the literature imply that M₊≅M₋ is the amplification a free group factor on a finite number of generators. As an application, we show that the factors Mj constructed in Guionnet et al. (in press) [6] are isomorphic to interpolated free group factors L(F(rj)), rj=1+2δ−2j(δ−1)I, where δ² is the index of the planar algebra and I is its global index. Other applications include computations of laws of Jones-Wenzl projections.     

Enumeration of non-crossing pairings on bit strings

A non-crossing pairing on a bit string is a matching of 1s and 0s in the string with the property that the pairing diagram has no crossings. For an arbitrary bit-string w=p₁¹q₁⁰…pr¹qr⁰, let φ(w) be the number of such pairings. This enumeration problem arises when calculating moments in the theory of random matrices and free probability, and we are interested in determining useful formulas and asymptotic estimates for φ(w). Our main results include explicit formulas in the “symmetric” case where each pi=qi, as well as upper and lower bounds for φ(w) that are uniform across all words of fixed length and fixed r. In addition, we offer more refined conjectural expressions for the upper bounds. Our proofs follow from the construction of combinatorial mappings from the set of non-crossing pairings into certain generalized “Catalan” structures that include labeled trees and lattice paths.     

Asymptotic tail probability of randomly weighted sums of dependent random variables with dominated variation

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of tail probability of randomly weighted sums of dependent and real-valued random variables with dominated variation, where the weights form another sequence of nonnegative random variables. The result we obtain extends the corresponding result of Wang and Tang[7].     

Ruin probability and joint distributions of some actuarial random vectors in the compound pascal model

The compound negative binomial model,introduced in this paper,is a discrete time version.We discuss the Markov properties of the surplus process,and study the ruin probability and the joint distributions of actuarial random vectors in this model.By the strong Markov property and the mass function of a defective renewal sequence,we obtain the explicit expressions of the ruin probability,the finite-horizon ruin probability,the joint distributions of T,U(T-1),|U(T)| and 0≤inn相似文献   

一类推广负风险和模型的破产概率

本文研究了带干扰的两险种负风险和模型的破产问题.利用无穷小方法,给出了该风险模型破产概率所满足的微分-积分方程,并推导出破产概率满足的Lundberg型不等式.最后指出了当索赔服从负指数分布时破产概率的上界,推广了经典风险模型的结果.     

基于Pareto最优风险转换的联合共保模型及其破产概率

本文从联合保险市场Pareto最优风险转换出发,考虑保险公司不仅是分出再保险自己公司承保的风险,也可以分入再保险以分保其他公司的风险,整个保险市场的各公司之间是相互承保的,形成一个联合共保的市场整体,依据Borch的市场均衡理论,建立了保险公司之间联合比例分保模型,同时给出了风险转移矩阵的基本性质、各保险公司的安全荷载系数、各公司之间相关度以及各保险公司的破产概率,最后给出了有关联合共保及Pareto最优风险转换的实例分析.     

A sequential perspective on searching for static targets

We present a sequential approach to detect static targets with imperfect sensors, which range from tower-mounted cameras to satellites. The scenario is operationally relevant to many military, homeland security, search and rescue, environmental engineering, counter-narcotics, and law enforcement applications. The idea is to stop the search as soon as there is enough probabilistic evidence about the targets’ locations, given an operator-prescribed error tolerance, knowledge of the sensors’ parameters, and a sequence of detection signals from the sensors. By stopping the search as soon as possible, we promote efficiency by freeing up sensors and operators to perform other tasks. The model we develop has the added benefits of decreasing operator workload and providing negative information as a search progresses.